The Osmancık earthquake risk features in official disaster plans. North Anatolian Fault data and how to turn earthquake anxiety into realistic preparation.
The windows rattling at night when a lorry passes, thinking the light fitting is swaying slightly, your heart racing at every earthquake notification on your phone... After the earthquakes of 6 February 2023, many people in Turkey came to know these feelings. For those living in the districts of the Kızılırmak valley through which the North Anatolian Fault runs, this anxiety carries a particular weight. According to the Çorum Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (İRAP, 2021), prepared by the Çorum Governorship and AFAD (Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority), the North Anatolian Fault passes through the districts of Osmancık and Kargı within the province. The Osmancık earthquake risk is therefore on the agenda both of official plans and of many families. In this article I focus on what the data say, where earthquake anxiety comes from, and how we can turn this anxiety from overwhelming fear into realistic preparation.
Earthquake Risk in Osmancık and Kargı: What Do the Data Say?
The İRAP is the most comprehensive document setting out the province's earthquake hazard on the basis of official data. The information in the document can be summarised as follows:
The location of the fault line. Within Çorum's provincial borders, the North Anatolian Fault runs for around 60 kilometres and passes through Osmancık and Kargı. The fault is about 65 kilometres from the provincial centre. There are also other active faults in the province, such as the Salhançayı, Merzifon-Esençay and Ezinepazarı-Sungurlu faults.
The hazard varies from district to district. According to İRAP data based on the Turkey Earthquake Hazard Map (2018), the peak ground acceleration with a probability of being exceeded once in 475 years ranges from 0.181 g to 0.672 g within the province. This wide range shows that the earthquake hazard varies greatly from place to place even within the same province; the hazard is higher in the northern districts close to the fault line.
Past earthquakes. According to Çelebi's (2021) study, based on parliamentary records and the press of the time, the Tosya-Ladik earthquake of 26 November 1943 affected Osmancık, which was then part of Çorum; Kargı at that time belonged to Kastamonu. The magnitude of this earthquake is given in sources as between 7.2 and 7.4. According to the same study, an earthquake occurred in Osmancık on 21 November 1942, and in December 1942 there were also earthquakes that affected the provincial centre. More recently, the earthquakes that struck Salhançayı on 14 August 1996 caused damage in Çorum and Amasya.
Long recurrence intervals. According to palaeoseismological studies cited in the İRAP, the recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the segments of the North Anatolian Fault in the region is between 250 and 800 years. This does not say when an earthquake will happen; but it is a reminder that the fault line is not "asleep".
Scenarios and landslides. The İRAP's earthquake scenarios are based on a magnitude 7.2 earthquake at Sungurlu and a magnitude 6.9 earthquake on the Merzifon-Esençay fault. There are also 1,295 mapped landslides in the province, concentrated in Osmancık, Bayat, Kargı, Sungurlu and the central district. Assessing earthquake and landslide risk together is important for preparedness.
What should you keep in mind when reading these data?
- Earthquake hazard maps show the probability of a given level of shaking being exceeded within a certain period; they do not say "an earthquake will happen on this date". No scientific method can predict the timing of an earthquake with certainty.
- Hazard and risk are not the same thing. Risk varies according to how robust a building is, the ground, preparedness and response capacity. In other words, a significant part of the risk is in people's hands.
- The number of deaths and destroyed homes in Çorum in historical earthquakes could not be verified in an official source; such figures have therefore not been included here.
- This article is not an engineering assessment; for the condition of your building, you need to consult the relevant authorities and experts.
What Factors Feed Earthquake Anxiety?
Earthquake anxiety cannot be explained by distance from a fault line alone. Many social and personal factors can increase or reduce it.
The 6 February 2023 earthquakes. These earthquakes, which affected eleven provinces, left a deep mark all over Turkey through the images watched on screens, the loved ones lost and the accounts of acquaintances. For those living on fault lines, these images made the thought "one day it could happen to us too" concrete.
Stories passed between generations. In some families, the 1943 earthquake may have been passed down through stories told by grandmothers and grandfathers. These stories teach caution, but they can also feed fear.
A constant flow of information. Earthquake notifications on phones, "the big one is coming" posts on social media and unverified predictions keep anxiety alive. Uncertainty is one of the things the human mind finds hardest to tolerate.
Rural life and access to services. People living in villages and small settlements may worry that it could take longer to reach help after a disaster. In places with a large older population, this worry can be even greater for older relatives.
Financial worries. The cost of strengthening a building or moving to a new one can create a feeling of "whatever we do is pointless" for many families. Financial helplessness combined with an uncontrollable hazard deepens anxiety.
Osmancık Earthquake Anxiety: Realistic Concern or Overwhelming Fear?
What people living in Osmancık, Kargı and other settlements close to the fault line feel may differ from what someone watching the news in a big city feels, because the hazard is not abstract; it concerns the very ground they live on. Feeling concerned in a place with earthquake risk is entirely understandable; indeed, a certain level of concern is a functional emotion that steers people towards preparation. What matters is whether this concern moves you to act or paralyses you.
Functional concern
Functional concern leads to concrete steps such as preparing an emergency bag, securing furniture and agreeing on a family meeting point. Once these steps have been taken, the concern eases and the person can carry on with daily life.
Overwhelming anxiety
With overwhelming anxiety, however, the fear does not ease even after preparation. The person cannot sleep at night, startles at the slightest vibration, constantly reads earthquake news and struggles to leave the building or to stay indoors. Anxiety begins to restrict daily life and relationships.
Physical symptoms
Earthquake anxiety can also show itself through physical symptoms such as palpitations, shortness of breath, dizziness, muscle tension and stomach complaints. Some people confuse these symptoms with the feeling that "an earthquake is happening", which increases anxiety even further.
Children and older people
Children pick up on adults' anxiety very quickly. Constant talk about earthquakes at home, a parent's tension or unannounced drills can lead to sleep problems, difficulty being alone and separation anxiety in children. In older people, limited mobility and past experiences can increase anxiety.
The "should we leave or stay?" dilemma
After 6 February, some families talked about moving somewhere away from the fault line. But home, land, work, neighbours and ageing parents tie people to the places they live. This dilemma can lead to disagreements and guilt within families: the person who chooses to stay may think "I'm putting my children at risk", while the person who wants to leave may feel "I'm tearing up my roots". It is healthier for such big decisions to be made not in a moment of fear but in a calm period, based on information and with every family member's voice heard.
The protective power of community solidarity
Disaster research shows that strong social ties are one of the most important protective factors both in preparing for a disaster and in recovering afterwards. One of the biggest advantages of small settlements is that people know each other and can easily come together. This culture of solidarity can turn earthquake anxiety from an individual burden into a shared process of preparation. An information meeting held by the neighbourhood or assembly areas agreed together give people the feeling that "I am not alone".
The avoidance cycle
To cope with anxiety, some people try not to think about the subject at all. They switch off the news and avoid conversations about preparation. While this brings relief in the short term, in the long term it keeps both the anxiety and the lack of preparation going. I discussed the general features of earthquake anxiety in detail in my article on earthquake anxiety.
Turning Anxiety into Preparation: Practical Suggestions
Let's say a mother of two living in Kargı has been taking her children into her own bed every night since 6 February and looking at earthquake maps on her phone until morning. She wants to prepare but does not know where to start. In this situation, the following steps can support both safety and mental health:
- List what you can control. You cannot control when an earthquake happens; but securing furniture, preparing an emergency bag, agreeing on a family meeting point and memorising emergency numbers are in your hands. For what to put in an emergency bag, you can take a look at my article on preparing an earthquake emergency bag.
- Get information about your building. If you are worried about the condition of your building, getting information from the relevant authorities and experts reduces uncertainty. Knowing rather than guessing turns anxiety into a concrete problem.
- Limit your news intake. Set aside a specific, short time each day for earthquake news and follow only reliable sources. Stay away from posts sharing unverified predictions.
- Hold family drills. Practising "drop, cover and hold on" with children calmly, like a game, turns fear into a skill.
- Explain things to children in a way that suits their age. Use short, honest and reassuring sentences: "An earthquake is a natural event. We have prepared and we know what to do."
- Learn to calm your body. Slow, deep breathing, muscle relaxation and regular physical activity reduce the physical symptoms of anxiety.
- Carry on with daily life. Once you have made your preparations, returning to your work, your conversations, your walks and the activities you enjoy sends your mind the message "I am busy with life, not with danger".
- Stand together with your neighbours. Identifying older people and those with limited mobility in the neighbourhood, and talking about who will support whom in a disaster, provides both practical and psychological reassurance.
When Should You Seek Professional Support?
Feeling concerned in an earthquake zone is normal. However, in the following situations support from a mental health professional may be helpful:
- If anxiety has not eased for weeks despite your preparations and is getting worse
- If sleep problems, nightmares and frequent waking at night continue
- If you struggle to stay at home or indoors and this is disrupting your work and social life
- If you experience panic symptoms such as sudden attacks of fear, palpitations and shortness of breath
- If you lost a loved one or had a directly traumatic experience in the 6 February earthquakes or another disaster
- If you have noticed changes in your child such as being unable to be alone, bedwetting or constantly playing earthquake games
- If hopelessness and thoughts that life is meaningless have appeared
If you are having thoughts of harming yourself, this is an emergency; call 112 (emergency services) without delay or go to the nearest emergency department.
How Is Earthquake Anxiety Addressed in Therapy?
When working with earthquake anxiety, the aim is not to ignore the risk but to stop anxiety from running your life.
Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is a frequently used approach in this area, and its effectiveness is supported by research. First, the thoughts that feed the anxiety are identified: "The earthquake will definitely happen tonight", "If it happens none of us will survive", "Preparing is pointless". The realism of these thoughts is assessed together, and more balanced perspectives are developed. Work on increasing tolerance of uncertainty, reducing safety behaviours such as constantly checking the news, and gradually facing avoided situations are also part of the process.
For people who have had a traumatic earthquake experience in the past, trauma-focused approaches come into play. When working with children, age-appropriate tools such as play and drawing are used, and parents are guided on how to talk with their children.
If anxiety and panic symptoms are in the foreground, work in the area of anxiety and panic may suit you. I work in Çorum with face-to-face and online sessions; online sessions can make access easier for those living in districts far from the provincial centre.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which districts of Çorum does the North Anatolian Fault pass through?
According to the Çorum Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (2021), within the province the North Anatolian Fault passes through the districts of Osmancık and Kargı. There are also other active faults in the province, such as the Salhançayı, Merzifon-Esençay and Ezinepazarı-Sungurlu faults.
Has there been a major earthquake in Osmancık before?
According to historical studies, the Tosya-Ladik earthquake of 26 November 1943 affected Osmancık. In 1942 there were also earthquakes in Osmancık and the provincial centre. Figures on deaths and damage in Çorum in these earthquakes could not be verified in an official source.
When is earthquake anxiety considered normal?
Concern that leads you to prepare, then eases and does not restrict your daily life is normal and functional. If anxiety does not ease despite preparation and disrupts your sleep, work or relationships, you may consider seeking professional support.
How should I explain to my child that we live in an earthquake zone?
Use short, honest language that suits their age. Emphasise that an earthquake is a natural event, that your family has prepared and that you know what to do. Answering their questions calmly and turning drills into a game supports the child's sense of security.
Bu yazı genel bilgilendirme amaçlıdır; tanı veya tedavi yerine geçmez. Yaşadığınız güçlükler için bir ruh sağlığı uzmanına başvurmanız önerilir. Acil bir durumda lütfen 112'yi arayın.
Eda Erkan Alapala
Klinik Psikolog. İstanbul Kent Üniversitesi Klinik Psikoloji Tezli Yüksek Lisans mezunu; bilişsel davranışçı terapi, çocuk merkezli oyun terapisi ve çocuk-ergen psikoterapisi alanlarında eğitimlerini tamamlamıştır.
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