Does fear of earthquake predictions keep you following every statement and list? Learn why this cycle continues and how to build a healthier bond with news.
After dinner a debate programme is on television. One guest talks about a probability for "the expected big earthquake", another disagrees. By the time you leave for work tomorrow morning, you will have watched the clipped video of this statement three more times on social media, read the comments underneath and refreshed the "latest earthquakes" list. Fear of earthquake predictions describes the state in which the wish to know when an earthquake will happen turns into an anxiety that grows the more you look for information. In this article we look at why this cycle is so powerful, what science can and cannot say on the subject, and ways of building a healthier relationship with information.
What Is Fear of Earthquake Predictions?
Fear of earthquake predictions is not a diagnostic label; it is an everyday expression describing being unable to stop following statements, probability estimates and claims about earthquakes, and that following increasing anxiety rather than reducing it.
At the heart of this fear lies a deeply human wish: to know when danger will come. If we know the time, we can prepare, escape, protect the people we love. The problem is that an earthquake is an event whose timing cannot be known in advance. The mind does not want to accept this unknown, and it rushes to every new statement and every new claim in search of an answer.
Why Can't We Stop Following?
Reading or watching an earthquake statement gives the short-term feeling that you are doing something. The sense of "I'm keeping informed, I'm prepared" calms anxiety a little in that moment. But this relief lasts a few minutes, and then a new question arrives: "So what does the other expert say?"
Several psychological mechanisms feed this cycle:
Intolerance of uncertainty: For some people, "not knowing" is even more distressing than knowing bad news. These people constantly look for information to close the uncertainty.
Reassurance seeking: Following statements is really waiting for someone to say "don't worry, it won't happen soon". But no scientist can say that sentence; so the reassurance never comes.
Selective attention: An anxious mind notices frightening statements more and remembers them longer. Calming information slips by unnoticed.
Algorithms: When you watch an earthquake video, social media shows you more like it. Your feed gradually fills with more and more earthquake content, and the world looks more dangerous than it is.
A superstitious sense of keeping watch: Some people secretly fear that the earthquake will happen on the day they stop following the statements. It feels as though watching is a vigil that keeps disaster at bay. Even though logic knows this is not so, the feeling makes it harder to stop.
Added to these may be the fear of being left out. Not knowing about a statement everyone is talking about feels like being cut off from the conversation and the community. In this way, following begins to serve less the need to be informed and more the need to "be among people who share the same fear".
The result of these mechanisms is a vicious cycle in which anxiety grows the more you search for information. You can find a detailed look at the effect of endlessly scrolling through bad news on mental health in our article on doomscrolling.
Signs of Fear of Earthquake Predictions
If you notice the following in yourself, following may have started to feed your anxiety:
- Checking earthquake lists or apps many times a day
- After a minor earthquake notification, spending hours researching "is this a sign of the big one?"
- Analysing experts' statements word by word and trying to resolve the contradictions between them
- Becoming uneasy as a date approaches, even if you do not take claims that give specific dates seriously
- Feeling that you are "missing something" when you are not following the news
- Waking at night to look at your phone, checking the list one last time before going to bed
- Conversations, family gatherings and work breaks constantly drifting towards earthquakes
Some of these behaviours can occasionally appear in anyone. The real question is how often they occur, how much time they take and whether they ultimately leave you calmer or more on edge.
What Does Science Say, and What Doesn't It Say?
Being clear on this is an important part of reducing anxiety. Seismologists can study the fault lines in a region, past earthquakes and accumulated strain, and make assessments about the probability of an earthquake within a certain time frame. However, there is currently no scientific method anywhere in the world that can determine in advance the date, time, location and magnitude of an earthquake together.
This knowledge has two important consequences:
- Claims that give a specific date or day are not scientific. Predictions based on the alignment of planets, the weather or animal behaviour are not accepted methods of earthquake prediction.
- Scientists' statements use the language of probability. Expressions such as "a high probability in the coming years" do not mean "tomorrow" or "this month". But an anxious mind hears probability as certainty.
In other words, however many statements you watch, there is a ceiling to the information you can learn. After you reach that ceiling, every additional search brings you not new information, only new anxiety.
Watching more statements does not make you better prepared for an earthquake; it only makes you more tired. Preparation begins at home, not on a screen.
Statements, Screens and Notifications in Turkey
In Turkey, earthquakes are not only a scientific topic but also a permanent fixture of the everyday news agenda. After the 6 February 2023 earthquakes, earthquake debates on television programmes, social media and messaging groups barely let up. Especially for people living in Istanbul, talk of "the expected earthquake" has been part of life for years.
In this environment, some familiar situations that feed fear of earthquake predictions are:
- Family and workplace messaging groups: Someone shares a video, the question "is this true?" follows, everyone adds what they know, and the atmosphere quickly becomes tense.
- Clipped videos: A few seconds of a sentence taken from a long interview is cut from its context, circulates, and takes on a more frightening meaning than it had.
- Conflicting voices: Different experts placing emphasis differently raises the question "who should I believe?" and triggers more searching.
- Earthquake apps: Notifications arriving for every minor tremor keep earthquakes alive in the mind all day long.
We look in more detail at how unverified information spreads rapidly and increases anxiety in our article on misinformation and anxiety.
Ways of Coping With Fear of Earthquake Predictions
Set an "information menu"
Choose one or two official and reliable sources from which you will get information about earthquakes; official bodies such as AFAD (Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority) and long-established scientific institutions can be among them. Consciously remove debate programmes, clipped videos and anonymous claims from your menu.
Put a time limit on following
Set aside a specific, short time once a day for earthquake news; for example, ten minutes at lunchtime. Notice the urge to "just have a look" that comes up during the day, name it, and postpone it until then. In the hour before bed, try not to look at earthquake content at all.
Reorganise your notifications
You do not have to switch off the earthquake app's notifications completely. But you can choose to receive notifications not for every small tremor, only for earthquakes in your own region and above a certain magnitude. This significantly reduces being triggered throughout the day.
Ask, "Will this information change what I do today?"
Before watching a statement or refreshing a list, ask yourself this question. If the answer is "no", the information will give you not an action but only anxiety. If you have already done what you can, such as preparing an emergency bag, making a family plan and securing furniture, extra information will not change anything for that day.
Set limits in messaging groups
If earthquake videos shared in family or friends' groups are hard on you, you can say so kindly: "These videos really wind me up; I'd be glad if we only passed on official statements to each other." If necessary, muting the group for a while is also a legitimate way to protect yourself.
Meet uncertainty in small doses
The way to increase tolerance of uncertainty is to experience it in small areas. For example, try not to look at the earthquake list at all for a whole day and note in the evening how your anxiety unfolded. Many people notice that, though it feels hard at first, the anxiety eases faster than they expected.
Shift your energy from the screen to life
Devote part of the time you spend watching earthquake content to things within your control: a walk, meeting a friend, a task you have been putting off, a game with your child. This is not suppressing the fear but making room for the rest of life as well.
Let us say an accountant has made a habit of watching earthquake statements on the metrobus every morning on the way to work. By the time he reaches the office he feels tight inside and struggles to focus. For a week, he tries listening to a podcast on this journey instead of earthquake videos, and looks at earthquake news only for ten minutes at lunchtime. In the first days his hand keeps reaching for his phone; but by the end of the week he notices that his mornings start more calmly. The earthquake is still on his mind, but it no longer runs his day.
When Should You Seek Professional Support?
Wanting information about earthquakes is entirely understandable, especially when living in a country with high earthquake risk. However, support from a professional may be helpful in the following situations:
- Following takes up a significant part of your day and you do not succeed when you try to limit it
- Earthquake thoughts clearly affect your sleep, work or relationships
- Claims giving specific dates seriously affect you, and on those dates you cannot leave home or go to work
- Fear of earthquakes has turned into a general anxiety about the future or a constant state of alertness
- An earthquake you experienced in the past comes back with nightmares and sudden memories
For those who want support with this kind of anxiety but cannot find time for face-to-face sessions because of a busy schedule or living in another city, online therapy is also an option.
How Is Fear of Earthquake Predictions Addressed in Therapy?
The aim of therapy is not to make you ignore earthquake risk, but to help you live with this risk without letting it take over your life.
Within cognitive behavioural therapy, the function of following behaviours is examined first: in which situations, with which thought, do you start looking for information, and how do you feel at the end of the search? When this cycle becomes visible, starting points for change also become clear.
Work on tolerating uncertainty aims to change the person's relationship with "not knowing". Since it is not possible to eliminate uncertainty, the ability to live alongside it is strengthened step by step.
Reducing reassurance-seeking behaviours is an important part of therapy. Behaviours such as checking lists, watching statements and asking others "do you think it'll happen?" are gradually reduced at the person's own pace, and meanwhile the person experiences the anxiety easing on its own.
With the worry time technique, earthquake thoughts scattered throughout the day are gathered into a specific time slot. This makes it possible to set a limit on the thoughts without suppressing them.
In some people, fear of earthquake predictions is linked to an older and deeper belief that "something bad could happen at any moment". From a schema-focused perspective, the roots of this belief can be sought in childhood and adolescent experiences and made sense of together in therapy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I switch off my earthquake app's notifications?
You do not have to switch them off completely. Limiting notifications to your own region and to earthquakes above a certain magnitude both keeps you informed and reduces being triggered all day. If notifications still weigh on you heavily, you can switch them off for a while and observe how your anxiety changes.
Would it be irresponsible never to listen to experts' statements?
No. What matters is getting information from reliable sources and in limited doses. If you have done what can be done, such as building safety checks, preparation and a family plan, following every new statement does not make you any safer.
Why do predictions that give a specific date still make me uneasy?
Even if your rational mind knows these claims are not scientific, an anxious mind can get stuck on the possibility "what if it's true". This does not mean you are naive or irrational; it shows the effect uncertainty has on the mind. Keeping to your daily routine on that date too gradually reduces the power of such claims.
I wake at night and check the latest earthquakes list. How do I break this habit?
Charging your phone outside the bedroom or limiting access to the app during the night can be a first step. When you wake, focus on breathing out slowly instead of checking the list. Every night that passes without checking weakens this habit a little more.
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Eda Erkan Alapala
Klinik Psikolog. İstanbul Kent Üniversitesi Klinik Psikoloji Tezli Yüksek Lisans mezunu; bilişsel davranışçı terapi, çocuk merkezli oyun terapisi ve çocuk-ergen psikoterapisi alanlarında eğitimlerini tamamlamıştır.
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